Sunday Summary: Mamdani, Dezer and Lenders — Oh My!

Well, we’re nine days in, but nobody can say it’s been a slow November.

On Nov. 4, (despite certain last-minute polls suggesting otherwise) New Yorkers cast their ballots and elected the city’s first Muslim, South Asian and Socialist, Zohran Mamdani, to be mayor.

Real estate has not exactly been thrilled with this development.

“Can [Mamdani] be the first person in the history of human civilization to make price-fixing work?” Bob Knakal asked in his column last week in Commercial Observer.

Bob is skeptical, to put it mildly.

“It has never worked, and is not likely to ever work given the catastrophic history this approach has demonstrated,” Knakal wrote. “Example after example exists of how price-fixing creates cheating, black markets, misallocations, shortages and a host of other maladies that have plagued the very people the tactic was intended to help.”

But, like it or not, Mamdani will be sworn in on Jan. 1, and, before possible sources might pack their U-Hauls and split for Boca, CO decided to examine the fundamental question:

What can real estate realistically expect from a Mamdani administration?

There are some limitations on a mayor — some of which were (ironically enough) exposed by Mamdani’s opponent in the primary, Andrew Cuomo, who used his powers as governor to endlessly torment Bill de Blasio. A mayor, it seems, has a lot less say than a governor if they come to loggerheads.

But on the issue that CRE cares most about — Mamdani’s promise of a rent freeze — he will likely get to appoint the members of the Rent Guidelines Board, about six of whom are already serving despite their terms having expired.

“If Mayor Adams doesn’t [replace any members], then Mamdani can immediately appoint people to the Rent Guidelines Board,” said political consultant Suri Kasirer.

Stacking the board might be something Adams takes a serious stab at doing before he leaves town. Because, since he was sworn in almost four years ago, Adams has been a stalwart ally of the real estate business.

Attorney Mitch Korbey, chair of Herrick, Feinstein’s land use and zoning group, told CO that Adams was the most productive mayor since the 1960s in terms of zoning and urban planning.

And one has seen results — even if they certainly can’t be attributed fully to Adams.

In terms of the inventory of available office space, Colliers just released a report saying that Manhattan had notched its lowest level since 2020.

“Here at Vornado, our business is good — really good — and growing strong,” Steven Roth boasted on Vornado Realty Trust’s earnings call a few hours before the election would be called for Mamdani. “Our performance continues to lead both the national office pack and our New York peers.”

Indeed, we saw four leasing deals over 100,000 square feet last week: Sixth Street is subleasing 103,419 square feet at The Spiral; Robinhood (the fintech firm) is also subleasing 125,392 square feet at 2 Pennsylvania Plaza, while Dick’s Sporting Goods is taking 125,284 square feet at the same property; and BakerHostetler renewed 115,078 square feet at Tishman Speyer’s 45 Rockefeller Plaza. (It didn’t break the 100K-mark, but we thought we should also mention that fintech firm Current is also taking 62,000 square feet at Penn 2. Good week for Steve Roth.)

And we haven’t even mentioned that just weeks ago one of the biggest financial institutions in the world (J.P. Morgan Chase) opened 270 Park Avenue, one of the biggest and most impressive skyscrapers to hit New York in ages. (And, while you’re thinking about it, check out our interview with Michelle Herrick, head of commercial real estate at the bank, and Brian Baker, global head of commercial mortgages at said bank.)

All of which says something else, too. The writing about Mamdani has been on the wall for months — and at least those aforementioned businesses didn’t decide to leave for South Florida.

But if you did leave…

Actually, South Florida is hopping!

Weeks after tantalizing us at CO’s Florida forum, Gil Dezer finally revealed the $630 million lender on his Sunny Isles Beach luxury Bentley-branded condo. (It was Madison Realty Capital.)

Terra also received a $238 million refinancing package from Eldridge Capital Management and Hudson Bay for an eight-story, 66-condo, mixed-use project with a 102,000-square-foot office portion called The Well in Bay Harbour Island, Fla.

BH Group and Gold Standard of Care picked up a 1.8-acre assisted living complex in Aventura, Fla., from Blackstone at a 75 percent discount from what Blackstone paid for it in 2017. (They paid $12 million for the property.)

Multifamily developer Ytech scored a gargantuan $565 million loan from J.P. Morgan and Sculptor Real Estate to build an equally gargantuan, 70-story Residences at 1428 Brickell.

And Namdar Group scored $460 million  from Scale Lending to build a two-tower Downtown Miami multifamily development.

Lend me your eyes

That’s a lot of deals and a lot of money.

We actually spoke to several people involved in the aforementioned loans for our annual Lenders Issue, which published last week. The top bankers, alternative lenders and brokers sounded off on everything from interest rates, to insurance, to Taylor Swift’s engagement.

They also went deep on the next black swan they’re trying to anticipate, the benefits of private capital vis-a-vis banks, and what the soundtrack of their lives consists of (“My Way” came up more than once).

All worth a deep dive.

See you next week!