In the Miami-Area Condo Market, There Are Two Narratives

CMC Group and Fort Partners didn’t expect this level of demand. When the developers soft launched their Four Seasons-branded condo in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood two years ago, they had little more than architectural drawings — no email blast, no press release, not even proper renderings. 

And, yet, two months later, merely through word of mouth, buyers had already placed contracts on 30 percent of the residences at the 70-unit development, where prices average roughly $10 million. Earlier this year, the 20-story project nabbed a $323.8 million construction loan after fielding interest from 12 different lenders. 

“I wasn’t surprised at the success. I knew the market had an appetite for it,” said Christine Martinez de Castro, CMC’s chief marketing and sales officer. But the speed of the sales “took me a little by surprise. It just took off to the races.”

The South Florida condo market remains red hot — for the right product. 

As billionaires open offices and their high-earning employees relocate down south, the top of the condo market remains strong. Developers continue to launch luxury condo projects and land financing to get them off the ground, after showing strong pre-selling to lenders. An avalanche of foreclosures, which some had predicted as the COVID-19 pandemic subsided and major cities such as New York reopened, has yet to materialize. 

The bottom end of the market, though, is an entirely different story. Reforms passed in 2022 after the deadly collapse of the Champlain Towers South building in Surfside are putting immense pressure on owners of aging condos. They must now start paying for expensive structural repairs, which many had avoided for years. Instead of paying up, many are choosing to sell, creating a buyer’s market for the old stock. 

Since 2023, Florida’s overall condo inventory has surged, with active listings more than doubling to 68,757 units, while the median closing period has increased from 71 days to 111 days, according to data from the Florida Realtors trade association. The median sale price of a South Florida condo has fallen by 1.5 percent in the past year to $310,000.

Among the things making prospective buyers wary are costly special assessments. In 2022, the Florida Legislature passed laws mandating that condo boards of buildings at least three stories tall and 30 or more years old commission an engineering report examining their building’s structural health. Boards must fund any immediate repairs found in the report and begin saving for future restorations and replacements. 

Previously, only Miami-Dade and Broward counties required buildings to undergo a recertification. Boards were notorious for either delaying renovations or skipping them altogether by waiving fees. 

“The older condo stock, unfortunately, is facing a double whammy,” said Ana Bozovic, a condo analyst and founder of Analytics.Miami. It’s being “challenged by the state law. And at the same time it’s not benefiting the new buyers, because they are not purchasing at this price point, regardless.”

The millionaire population of Miami and West Palm Beach surged by 94 and 112 percent, respectively, between 2014 and 2024, according to data from Henley & Partners, a residence and citizenship advisory firm. Since 2022, billionaires, including Jeff Bezos, Howard Schultz and Ken Griffin, have all made Miami-Dade County their primary residence. Some are also opening offices, bringing along a new set of well-heeled, prospective buyers in the form of their white-collar executives. 

Pricey residential sales have followed. Transactions in South Florida above $10 million doubled year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, setting a record, according to data from ISG World’s Miami Report. Transactions exceeding $30 million also doubled during the period. Developers are taking note. 

But, even with all this demand, developers still have to tailor their projects, like in any market. 

“You’ve got a lot of demand for Miami, but you’ve also got a lot of supply, so that means that customers have choices. And those customers are educated,” said Arnaud Karsenti, managing principal of 13th Floor Investments. “I don’t think it’s enough to just get a brand, put it on a building, and assume that it’s going to sell. You have to really work at it.”

This month, the developer, in partnership with Key International, launched sales for a 75-story tower in Miami’s Brickell, designed by the firm of world-famous architect Norman Foster and branded after Nobu, the global, high-end sushi restaurant concept. 

Thanks to a whisper campaign, the 296-unit development has already generated $1 billion in sales through nonbinding reservations, which Karsenti expects to convert into binding contracts this summer. Asking prices for units range from $3 million to over $60 million.

Of course, the waterfront location in one of Miami’s most sought-after districts was a draw. But, according to the developer, so were Nobu and Norman Foster’s renowned reputations, as well as the 90,000 square feet of indoor and outdoor wellness-focused amenities, including five distinct pools and private Nobu restaurants, which altogether are expected to cost $25 million. Construction is slated to start early next year.

For developer Carlos Rosso of Rosso Development, the equation looks different. Not everyone can afford multimillion-dollar units. 

“There are about 35,000 units in preconstruction: 60 percent of those units are above $2 million, and the other 40 percent are for Airbnb closets,” said Rosso. “If you propose a product that is in between those two ranges, you’re filling a void for the end user in South Florida, who’s looking for a starter home.”

In 2021, Rosso, the longtime head of Related Group’s formidable condo division, struck out on his own, launching the Standard Hotel-branded residences in Miami’s Midtown neighborhood with Midtown Development. Within three months, 70 percent of the 228 units went under contract. Earlier this year, the joint venture completed the 12-story building and paid off the $45 million construction loan after generating roughly $200 million in sales. Only five units remain for sale. 

Rosso has now moved on to his next project, partnering with Proper Hospitality on a 28-story condo tower nearby, which launched sales in March. So far, 25 percent of the 288 units are under contract, with prices starting in the mid-$600,000s. 

“We knew that it was going to be a little bit slower than before, but it’s within what we anticipated,” Rosso said. “If you are able to produce the right project, those units are going to sell.”

Julia Echikson can be reached at jechikson@commercialobserver.com.