NYC Predicts Steep Drop in Tourism Numbers Amid Trump Policies

It looks like tourism is about to take a hit in New York City, and it’s not a coincidence that it’s coming after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs and immigration policies earlier this year.

The estimated number of tourists likely to visit the city this year has dropped to 64.1 million, 3.5 million less than the 67.6 million predicted in December, according to a Thursday report from the New York City Tourism + Conventions.

Trump’s policies are set to have the biggest impact on international travelers, whose visits to New York City this year are projected to fall to 12.1 million, down 17 percent from the original forecast of 14.6 million, the report found. That’s also a roughly 6 percent drop from the 12.9 million international tourists who visited Gotham in 2024.

The expected decline in tourist visits is a result of the Trump administration’s policies and “the effects of tariffs on prices and disposable income,” Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, which worked on the new forecast for the agency, said during a briefing on the report, according to Bloomberg.

A spokesperson for NYC Tourism did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The updated forecast comes as foreign tourism visits to the U.S. dropped 2.4 percent in February compared to the same period last year and fell 11.6 percent in March, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office.

And a lot of that drop is coming from Canada. On Friday, Air Canada said it has seen a “low teens” percentage decline in booking for trips to the U.S. over the next six months, following a 4.6 percent drop in passenger revenue on those routes over the first quarter of 2025, the New York Post reported.

And lower numbers of tourists means less business for New York City’s hotels, too. Over the past month or so, hospitality investors in the city have been plagued by Trump’s tariffs, which have caused a lot of economic uncertainty and limited new hotels from coming online, as Commercial Observer previously reported.

Still, hotel occupancy in March and April of this year matched 2024 numbers at 85 percent, and room rates continue to rise, according to The City.

But huge tourist attractions like the Empire State Building aren’t immune to the effects of Trump’s policies either.

Just last week, Empire State Realty Trust said it saw a slowdown in ticket sales at its Empire State Building observatory, reporting a net operating income of $15 million during the first quarter, a drop from $28.5 million during the fourth quarter of 2024 and a slight decrease from the $16.2 million from the same time last year, as CO reported.

ESRT blamed the slight drop on “bad weather” on holiday weekends and Easter shifting to the second quarter of the year. Still, ESRT President Christina Chiu said it would “monitor shifts in demand” amid the “uncertain” political environment.

Isabelle Durso can be reached at idurso@commercialobserver.com.