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Dan Duray

Comprehensive Lists

Our Gorgeous Mosaic: The Power 150

While not much good has come from the Great Recession, there is this: It has created an entirely new power dynamic in New York.

For decades, the power structure in this city was firmly established, even calcified. The same people. The same agendas. The same outcomes. Which isn’t to say that our business, political and Read More

Food

Magnolia Bakery to Expand to Harlem, Online

The Magnolia Bakery has signed a 10-year lease at a 5,200-square-foot space at 1751 Park Avenue, ahead of an online push that will broaden their market for baked goods and merchandise, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Co-owner Steve Abrams says he expects the new online store to bring in $10 million a year, Read More

Law column

Exit Strategies for Retail Tenants

With the shopping center-urban retail community out in full force this past week at the ICSC, and with Black Friday and e-Monday and such all in the frosty air, I figured ’tis the season for a column mainly aimed at those involved in retail and restaurant leasing.

Frankly, the getting-into-the-deal I leave Read More

concrete thoughts

The Tax Deal and Commercial Real Estate

If you’re a regular reader of my column, you know that I often discuss the relationship between the relative level of employment and the health of the underlying fundamentals of real estate. During this past recession, our economy lost approximately 8.4 million jobs, which had a significant negative impact on our real estate Read More

the lead indicator

The Tax Compromise and the Erosion of Public Accountability

To the consternation of his Democratic base, President Obama reached a compromise with Republicans early last week that will see expiring tax cuts extended temporarily for Americans at all income levels. Among the many other provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010, employee payroll taxes will Read More

the lead indicator

The Retail Numbers Going Forward

By the official measure, 18 months have passed since the end of the nation’s longest postwar recession. Consistent with the modest pace of growth that has followed and with excessive slack in the economy’s now idle resources, labor markets have registered only middling improvements during this year’s tentative recovery.

The recalcitrance of Read More

concrete thoughts

Connecting the Dots on Retail, Mixed-Use Investment Sales

Given the ICSC convention in New York this week, we will take a look at the investment-sales market for properties where retail stores are the primary drivers of revenue.

In 2010, the retail and mixed-use property sectors have seen strong activity. The retail sector has seen sales-volume increases, both in terms of the number Read More

the lead indicator

The Rise and Fall of Default

The default rate for commercial real estate mortgages held by the nation’s depository institutions–including mortgages at least 90 days delinquent and mortgages in non-accrual status–increased to 4.36 percent in the third quarter of 2010, up from 4.27 at midyear.

While the default rate continues to trend higher, the most recent increase is Read More

concrete thoughts

Pension Reform and Why You Should Care

It seems we are all aware of how sluggish our economic recovery has been. Each day we hear about economic indicators that are simply lackluster. There is uncertainty regarding our future tax policy, uncertainty about the implications of financial regulation and uncertainty about the true costs of our new health care system.

the lead indicator

Inflation and Commercial Real Estate

Rekindling popular concerns that current monetary policy interventions will ultimately foment an uncontrolled rise in inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee announced on Nov. 3 that it would purchase $600 billion in long-term treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. In choosing to renew a program of quantitative easing–formally, Read More

the lead indicator

If It Quacks Like a Lame Duck …

Expectations are low for the final weeks of the 111th Congress, which convened yesterday for the first time since before the midterm elections. It is unclear how much legislative business will be brought to closure given the entrenched positions of the parties.

For Republicans, there is an advantage in delaying the most Read More

concrete thoughts

About That Third Quarter

One of the market segments we always pay close attention to in New York City is the multifamily building sales market. Rent-regulated properties are always in high demand, as they possess the greatest amount of upside given the artificially low rents that regulation creates. Given their limited downside, these properties are always the easiest upon Read More

the lead indicator

Economic Policy as New Congress Takes Over

A week has now passed since the Republican Party wrested control of the House and nearly succeeding in doing the same in the Senate. The Democrats’ reversal of fortunes from two years ago has been framed in terms of voters’ dissatisfaction with growth in government and the lack thereof in the private economy. Read More

concrete thoughts

After the Shellacking: What D.C., Albany Power Shifts Could Mean for Commercial Real Estate Market

Last week’s midterm elections produced dramatic but not entirely unexpected results. In President Obama’s own words, Democrats got shellacked. Republicans gained control of the House; they lost several seats, but Democrats managed to hold on to the Senate. In New York State, it appears that the Republicans will have a majority in the State Senate, Read More