Jeffrey Gural
Chairman at GFP Real Estate
Where is GFP going to be in 2026? In 2028? In 2033?
After working in the business for so many years, I’ve learned that it’s incredibly hard to make predictions about the future.
My grandfather always said, “People will always need inexpensive office space.” I think our portfolio will continue to meet the demands of local businesses and nonprofits that are looking for a certain cool factor: industrial-like spaces with lots of air and light located in neighborhoods like Chelsea, the Flatiron, the Garment District and Downtown.
Beyond that, my hope is that GFP Real Estate will remain a family-owned and -operated business for many years to come. Presently, we have four generations working at the company, which is really encouraging. Brian Steinwurtzel, my nephew, has been growing the business by embarking on new developments projects, including the conversion of the 1 million-square-foot 25 Water Street from office to residential, the largest such project in the country right now.
Tell us about a successful financing you’ve done in the last 12 months. Or tell us about an unsuccessful one.
We refinanced several properties in early 2023, including 515 Madison Avenue, 5-9 Union Square West and 594 Broadway. Thankfully, we had good timing and were able to close before interest rates started to rise significantly, so we’re in pretty good shape. I’m more concerned about where interest rates will be in the next few years as new loans come due.
When will we know the market has stabilized? (Be specific!)
I think when we read that big companies are coming back to the office four to five days a week, that will be the beginning of the process. I believe the strength of the leasing market is tied to whether people are being asked to come back to work. If that doesn’t happen, we may be in trouble, which is what we’re seeing right now. I don’t see the majority of owners losing their properties. However, if higher rates remain the norm, it will be problematic as new loans come due. Beyond that, if the city and state can come up with a viable plan to allow for more Class B and C properties to convert to residential — like we saw downtown — that could also help things along
How do you think the 2024 presidential campaign will impact the commercial real estate market?
The biggest issue right now is the migrant crisis. If we continue to see 10,000-plus people sent to New York each month, the consequences will be disastrous. The result will be that the city will have to continue to cut services, which in turn hurts the commercial real estate industry and owners. Instead, the government needs to focus its efforts on issues like zoning and creating affordable housing development. We also need to figure out how to allow migrants to take the many jobs that Americans simply don’t want.
What business advice are you most tired of hearing?
I’m tired of hearing the countless predictions about a pending recession. In my experience, recessions usually arrive unannounced.
What’s the biggest market opportunity as we round out 2023?
Cash is king right now. I think the funds that are focused on purchasing distressed loans from banks will make a fortune.
Have you had a lot of staff turnover?
Fortunately, GFP has had very little turnover over the past few years. We work hard to make it an enjoyable place to work, and reward loyalty. We have countless employees who have been with us for more than 10 or 20 years.
Who do you like for POTUS in 2024? Biden.
Do you feel personally safe moving through NYC? Yes, absolutely.
Jerome Powell: Fan or critic? I am not a fan.
Can’t-live-without technology now? My iPad and iPhone.
Elon Musk is…? A genius, but a little crazy.
Taylor Swift or Beyoncé? Both, because this year we saw a record number of entries into our Summer Concert Giveaway contest as tenants that come to the office were given the opportunity to win pairs of VIP tickets to concerts at MetLife Stadium. Taylor Swift and Beyoncé were by far the most popular.
Artificial intelligence — good or bad? I think AI will be a great tool for new medical solutions, cures and training, but hopefully it doesn’t result in fewer jobs in those fields.
Mischa’s or Nathan’s for a hot dog? Nathan’s! They used to be a tenant of ours.
Netflix or Hulu? Both!
What character are you in “Succession”? I suppose I am most like the father, Logan Roy, but I’m nowhere near as conniving.
