Tariff Talk Overheard at ICSC Las Vegas

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and their potential consequences were unavoidable topics at ICSC in Las Vegas this year, due to their sheer scale and day-to-day variability. 

While many posited that tariffs were unlikely to dim the strength or the opportunities of the long-term retail market, others presented more cautious takes. Some retail investors were still pausing certain deals as they waited on economic conditions to unfurl, they said. Others were more skeptical, warning that the industry could be ignoring the financial risks posed by political and economic instability. 

Commercial Observer collected the differing opinions on Trump’s tariffs at ICSC, including from brokers, researchers, developers and capital markets experts, to understand what lies ahead in the coming year.

These quotes have been edited for length and clarity.
Kristin Mueller, president of retail property management at JLL:

“I have to reflect on conversations I had at Urban Land Institute (ULI) last week. Everybody’s attitude is, ‘we’ve just got to get on with our lives.’ We just got to go. And we can’t suspend business waiting to see if it happens again. We just have to move forward.”

Mike O’Neill, vice president of retail services at Cushman & Wakefield:

“We have had some headwinds as of late, in particular with the news surrounding tariffs. But I would say that what started as real concern surrounding what the tariffs meant, in terms of impact on margins and cost of goods, seems to be waning a bit over the course of the past several weeks, as there’s been a bit more clarity. So, while I still think there are some headwinds to navigate, there’s still a very positive outlook among a lot of brands over multiple categories.

“Uncertainty is the single biggest challenge when you look at making long-term commitments. In those very early days with the tariff announcements, there was a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And I think the very natural reaction was: ‘Let’s hit the pause button and take a wait and see approach.’ But again … there’s now a greater understanding of what it means, and I think much more optimism in terms of moving forward and making commitments.”

Sandy Sigal, chairman, president and CEO of NewMark Merrill Companies:

“Because the Trump administration is so volatile, it’s easy to say: ‘He threw up high tariffs, and now the tariffs are going to go down. This is just a short-lived thing; interest rates were high, but they’re gonna come back down.’ There’s always this tendency to say things will go back to normal. I don’t subscribe to that. 

“Our world is different today than it was a year ago. Political risk exists today that didn’t exist then. Today, we have an administration — for better or worse, I’m not making a judgement — that tomorrow could decide, “I don’t like this,” and double the tariffs on one thing or another, or a country or state. That’s a risk, just like there’s a risk of a tornado, hurricane or earthquake. Just because I don’t currently have an earthquake in California, that doesn’t mean there’s not gonna be an earthquake coming, right?

Matt Mousavi, senior managing principal and co-head of national net lease at SRS Real Estate Partners’ capital markets division:

“I think the effect is going to be felt more on the tenant side, on the retailer side. Of course, it could then translate to consumers, and then consumption, and so on, but it’s really a retailer issue. Developers are still struggling with high construction costs. You can’t necessarily say tariffs are going to make that better. It’s probably going to make things worse, you could argue. 

“But are we seeing those effects on the capital markets and investment side? Not really. Is it impacting buyers acquiring property? No. They’re looking at this as a long-term investment. It will take time to see the effects of tariffs and this reformatting of the economy, but buyers still want to buy because of the fundamentals of retail. 

“But no, no one’s bringing up tariffs in our world.”

Christine Mastandrea, CEO of Whitestone REIT:

“I think the press made too much out of it, to be honest. This is where you have to choose what noise to listen to. Gray hair matters. Going through cycles and knowing what not to listen to is important … because there’s always going to be things that are going to stop you from doing things. 

“I always say, this is a business that’s not for the faint of heart, but when you’ve been through a number of cycles, you see how it rolls. You get more comfortable taking on risk, and then you also get better at managing your team.”

Gina Baker Chambers, president of MCB Real Estate:

“I think everyone’s anticipating that there will be some impact on construction costs, particularly more on the material side. Predominantly, steel is the concern. But I will say it’s still very uncertain what that impact will be. I was at ULI last week — it was more of a multifamily conversation than a retail conversation — but there was consensus that costs could be somewhere in the 2 to 5 percent range of an increase. But costs have been going up, even without tariffs, candidly, for the last four years. And so I think it’s just going to continue to increase. Things don’t get cheaper, right? Maybe labor does around the edges. And so no one is currently afraid of a major increase in cost, but there will be an impact.

Meghann Martindale, principal, director of retail market intelligence at Avison Young:

“The big thing I’m watching this year, on the real estate side, is that for the last several years, we’ve had demand outweigh the supply of retail real estate. Record-low vacancy rates, record-low construction. I think this year we could actually see that invert because there’s more store closures than bankruptcies, and see supply outweigh demand for new stores. A lot of the retailers, because of the tariffs, have put their open-to-buys on hold, just to see what’s going to happen before they say: ‘Yes, then we’ll go sign these leases and get back out there and start doing deals again.’ So that’ll be an interesting dynamic for me this year.”

Brian Ley, managing director of commercial investment sales team at Northmarq:

“It’s a tale of two worlds. I think some folks are maybe more cautiously optimistic, sort of waiting a little bit just to see where things are going. And then there’s some folks who say: ’This is the time to buy now.’ And personally, I’m of the camp that says, ‘OK, if there’s turbulence or there’s choppiness in the market, that’s gonna scare some folks to not want to do anything and maybe sit on the sidelines. That’s opportunity, because that means less competition.’ 

“So if you really have money to deploy and get it to work and chase a yield, this is the time you’re waiting for. While others may say, wait until the capital markets come down, or there’s a rate cut, or this or that. It’s like they’re waiting for the perfect storm versus the business plan that they’ve always been waiting for. Usually, the volatility is when you want to make your move.”

Nick Trombola can be reached at ntrombola@commercialobserver.com.