Most Brokers Project Boost in 2025 Multifamily Investment Sales, Poll Shows

Commercial real estate professionals are projecting an uptick in multifamily investment sales activity for 2025, with plenty of dry powder to deploy even in a higher-for-longer interest rate climate, according to a new survey by Berkadia. 

The Berkadia 2025 Powerhouse Poll, set to be released Tuesday afternoon and shared with Commercial Observer in advance, shows that 84 percent of investment sales and debt brokers anticipate larger year-over-year transaction volume on institutional deals in excess of $50 million, up from 72 percent in the same survey last year. 

“There’s plentiful capital and it’s really just a matter of how the buyers and development community are going to react,” Ernie Katai, executive vice president and head of production at Berkadia, told CO. “The players are back in more abundance on the acquisition side.”

Berkadia is coming off 2024 in which it advised on $14 billion of investment sales volume from around 500 deals, an increase in 2023 when it arranged $9 billion from 300 transactions. Its total debt production also increased last year with $25 billion up from $22 billion in 2023. 

Katal said an early sign of 2025 being an active year on the multifamily transactions is underscored by Berkadia having $18 billion of active listings, which is two times higher than a year ago. 

Brokers are expecting bigger deal flow this year in the multifamily space despite 320 poll respondents (47 percent) indicating that inflation will have a significant moderate  impact on CRE investment activity. 

Forty-one percent in the poll estimate the 10-year Treasury will end 2025 at between 4 and 4.5 percent while 44 percent project long-term rates will hover between 3.5 and 4.1 percent. Eighty one percent of the Berkadia brokers polled said they expect to see increased distress opportunity in 2025. 

Sixty-one percent in the powerhouse poll said the Trump administration’s economic policies will have a positive effect on institutional investors seeking multifamily opportunities in the U.S. Katal said much of that confidence stems from a belief that Trump’s deregulation will yield more growth opportunities. 

“He’s got a pro-business slant to him so with that there’s some real thought that we could see some traction under this administration,” Katal said. “It will definitely have an impact and should help the industry.”

The bulk of Berkadia brokers polled (71 percent) said they expect cap rates to remain roughly the same at the end of 2025. Twelve percent said they expect cap rates will edge higher while 17 percent project they will head lower. 

With lending sources, Berkadia brokers polled (75 percent) said government-sponsored enterprises will be the most active in 2025 for multifamily loans followed by debt funds, banks and life insurance companies. 

Andrew Coen can be reached at acoen@commercialobserver.com.