2026 CMBS Cap Rates Range From 5.41% to 8.02%

CRED iQ analyzed $26.1 billion of the most recently issued loans securitized in 2026 across commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) conduit, single-asset, single-borrower (SASB), Freddie Mac and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation transactions. The data exposes a market split cleanly in two. 

On a balance-weighted basis, the average cap rate on newly originated collateral now sits almost exactly on top of the average mortgage coupon, meaning the typical 2026 borrower is financing at roughly zero positive leverage. Where a property sits relative to that line depends almost entirely on property type.

Within subtypes, the dispersion widens further. Super-regional malls priced at an 8.94 percent weighted cap rate — nearly 250 basis points (bps) above anchored retail centers at 6.48 percent — while garden multifamily (5.51 percent) and
multifamily cooperatives (4.89 percent) anchored the low end.

Property types financing at negative leverage.

Every “favored” income sector is now borrowing through its cap rate. Manufactured housing (minus 86 bps), mixed-use (minus 43 bps), self-storage (minus 35 bps), industrial (minus 30 bps) and multifamily (minus 19 bps) all carry coupons above their going-in yields.

Sponsors are explicitly underwriting net operating income growth — or betting on lower refinancing rates — to make the math work. In contrast, hospitality (plus 124 bps), office (plus 95 bps) and retail (plus 20 bps) are the only sectors still delivering positive leverage, compensation for the credit risk that lenders perceive there.

How conservative is office and hotel underwriting?

Extremely.

Office loans that cleared the securitization market in 2026 carry a 13.8 percent weighted NCF debt yield and just 55.4 percent cutoff loan to value (LTV) — the most conservative credit profile of any major sector. Hospitality runs nearly identical at a 13.8 percent debt yield. Only well-leased, low-leverage office is getting financed, while everything else remains shut out. 

Multifamily, by comparison, prices at a 9.6 percent debt yield and 62.9 percent LTV, with Freddie Mac executions averaging a 4.98 percent coupon — roughly 145 basis points inside conduit multifamily at 6.44 percent, a powerful agency funding advantage.

What’s zero positive leverage mean for investors?

Three takeaways from CRED iQ’s 2026 new-issue data stand out.

First, 56 percent of new-issue balance is full-term interest-
only — borrowers are maximizing cash flow to offset thin leverage spreads. Second, the cap-rate floor has been set by debt costs, not buyer optimism: Until coupons fall, multifamily and industrial cap rates have little room to compress. Third, the wide positive leverage in hotels, office and malls signals where repricing is complete — and where opportunistic credit is being paid to take risk.

Mike Haas is the founder and CEO of CRED iQ.