A Year After the L.A. Fires, Rental Housing Remains a Critical Pressure Point

One year after the January 2025 wildfires tore through parts of Los Angeles County, destroying thousands of homes and displacing tens of thousands of residents, the region’s housing recovery remains uneven. While rebuilding continues, the fires left a lasting imprint on Southern California’s already strained rental market and offer a broader lens into how rentals function as a stabilizing force during periods of disruption.

The fires did not create the region’s housing challenges, but they amplified them. With for-sale inventory limited and construction timelines extended, many displaced households turned to rentals, adding pressure in a region where vacancy rates were already among the lowest in the country, according to data from CoStar Group.

That local strain contrasts with a national rental market that has cooled notably over the past year.

Across the United States, rents have moderated from their pandemic-era highs. The national median rent fell roughly 1 percent year-over-year at the end of 2025 and now sits about 6 percent below its 2022 peak, according to Apartment List’s December 2025 national rent report. Realtor.com reports that asking rents in November across the 50 largest metros declined year-over-year for the 28th consecutive month, though they remain approximately 17 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Vacancy rates have risen nationally as well. A wave of new multifamily deliveries has pushed apartment availability to its highest level in years, according to CoStar Group, contributing to slower rent growth and increased concessions in many markets.

But the national averages obscure sharp regional differences.

In Los Angeles, rents remain elevated despite some softening. Monthly rents for one-bedroom apartments typically range from the low to high $2,000s, with two-bedroom units frequently exceeding $3,400 in many neighborhoods, according to market analyses from Zumper and local brokerage data. Permitting delays and rebuilding constraints following the fires have limited new supply, keeping vacancy tight relative to other major metros.

Northern California tells a similar story, although for different reasons. San Francisco experienced renewed rent growth in 2025 as office attendance improved and tech hiring stabilized, pushing vacancy rates down and rents up in several core neighborhoods, according to industry data.

In the Pacific Northwest, Seattle saw rents rise modestly in 2025, outperforming the national trend as population growth and limited new supply increased demand. As of January 2026, the average monthly rent in the metro was $2,083, about 28 percent higher than the national average, according to Apartment List data.

Texas markets remain mixed. Austin and San Antonio have benefited from significant new construction that eased pressure on rents, while Houston and Dallas continue to see tighter conditions in certain submarkets, according to data from Yardi Matrix.

In the Washington, D.C., metro area, suburban Northern Virginia posted steady rent growth through much of 2025, supported by government- and defense-related employment, according to CoStar data.

These regional variations reflect a rental market shaped by local economics, supply pipelines and external shocks. In Southern California, the wildfires served as an accelerant, pushing rental demand higher in an environment already constrained by decades of underbuilding.

Looking ahead to 2026, most forecasters expect stabilization rather than sharp movement. Rent growth is projected to track closer to historical averages as new supply is absorbed and household formation continues at a slower pace, according to forecasts from Buildium and Realtor.com. At the same time, elevated home prices and stubbornly high interest rates are likely to keep a sizable share of households in the rental market longer than initially expected.

The anniversary of the Los Angeles wildfires underscores a broader reality. Rental housing plays a central role not only in affordability debates, but also in the resilience of housing systems when markets are disrupted. While national conditions may be easing, localized pressures remain intense, particularly in high-cost coastal metros where supply remains structurally constrained.

Michael Lucarelli is the founder and CEO of rental software provider RentSpree.