Electrification Falls Short as a Solution for Reducing Building Emissions
By Lee Hoffman November 8, 2024 5:59 am
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Governments and utilities have thrown billions of dollars into incentives for switching buildings from gas to electricity, but here’s the harsh reality: In dense urban areas with thousands of buildings, fewer than 1 percent have successfully made the change, which is no coincidence.
In newly constructed buildings, their design can account for the unique demands of electric heat pumps, and the energy efficiency of modern materials makes it a more viable solution. However, for the rest of the country’s building stock, until the cost of electricity drops by 75 percent or more relative to gas and a significant portion of our power grid is powered by renewable sources, electrifying existing buildings will remain a distant dream.
That said, there are many viable measures that have a real, substantive impact on carbon emissions and are good for the industry’s bottom line. This includes smart building controls; replacing older boilers with smaller, higher-efficiency boilers; installing variable frequency drives (VFDs) on motors and pumps; and using electric chillers. These measures are all available right now, and, more importantly, they work. These measures, which can genuinely make cities greener and more affordable, are getting far less attention and fewer incentives because of electrification hype.
There are several reasons why the electrification of our existing building stock is not as viable of a solution as many people believe.
First, there’s the costs. The electrification of buildings requires replacing efficient gas boilers with electric heat pumps, for which the government has offered subsidies and tax credits to encourage building owners to ditch fossil fuels in favor of electricity-based systems. Utilities have also sweetened the deal by offering further financial incentives.
The upfront costs of doing this, however, are significant. Heat pumps are complex systems, and installing them, particularly in larger or older buildings, requires significant construction in the interior and exterior of every single apartment. Moreover, the ongoing costs of running these systems are higher. While a well-maintained gas boiler provides reliable, cost-effective heat, heat pumps in colder climates can be far less efficient, especially in older buildings with poor insulation. The electric bill then quickly climbs, and owners spend large sums upfront to increase their monthly bills. Therefore, if every building in a major city went electric, the cost of housing would skyrocket.
Then there’s the infrastructure challenge. Most buildings simply don’t have the electrical capacity to handle the added load of heating through electric systems. Retrofitting buildings to increase their electrical capacity isn’t just expensive, it’s disruptive. Imagine the logistical nightmare of tearing open every wall in hundreds of apartments to run new electrical wiring — there’s a reason so few buildings have done it. Even if building owners were willing to endure these costs and disruptions, the utilities are not ready, as they do not have the infrastructure to support a mass shift from gas to electricity. Our power grids, especially in densely populated urban areas, are already stretched to the limit.
Even if it were possible to electrify every building in the nation’s most populated areas, where would that electricity come from? More than 75 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. still comes from fossil fuel sources like natural gas and coal. Converting all these buildings to electric heat would only increase demand for fossil fuels, and, ironically, emissions would rise as a result. We would be moving emissions from the building to the power plant, making it less efficient in doing so.
Running the largest smart building control company in the U.S., we at Runwise control both gas/oil boilers and electric heat pump systems in buildings. We love electric heat pumps in new construction where installing them makes perfect sense. But when it comes to retrofitting existing buildings, particularly older, larger ones, it’s simply not feasible today. I’ve tried to electrify two large buildings I’ve lived in, only to be told by engineers and contractors that it was impractical and financially unfeasible.
It’s easy to get caught up in the vision of an all-electric future. The government’s funding sounds enticing, the utilities’ incentives look promising, and it’s hard to ignore the hype electrification has gotten across various industries. But, when it comes to retrofitting existing buildings, especially in highly populated cities, the hard truth is that electrification is not feasible. The challenges are structural, financial and technological.
We will get there one day, but right now there is a direct path toward making cities cleaner, greener and more affordable, and it starts with technology that is delivering results, not promising them.
Lee Hoffman is president and co-founder of Runwise.
