Larry Kravetz

What’s been the biggest market highlight and challenge of 2025 so far? 

I believe they are one and the same, which is the growing liquidity in the CRE lending markets and the accompanying spread tightening. Dynamic markets are always a challenge, but the highlight is that in this environment it is leading to growth in transaction activity across all sectors of CRE. 

Should 2026 be a bigger year for CMBS than 2025, volume wise?

I anticipate growth in CMBS in 2026, primarily due to anticipated rate cuts and increased sales activity. The CMBS market has rebounded in 2024 and 2025 without a robust sales market. While that has driven some refinancing activity in lieu of sales, a growing sales market will be a strong catalyst for continued growth in the CMBS market. 

Which key lending opportunities exist today that didn’t exist this time last year?

For the most part, this year is a continuation of the financing growth trend we experienced last year. What is particularly interesting is the financing opportunities we are seeing in office, both in acquisitions and refinancings.  We anticipate that we will continue to see these opportunities in office in 2026 and beyond. 

What’s your team’s biggest competitive advantage in the market today, and which deals will you be competing most fiercely for at Nomura?

This is a unique time for us as we ramp up, and the reception from clients and the broker community has been overwhelmingly enthusiastic. Our approach is to be laser-focused on situations where we can execute best for our clients, especially ones that require a creative approach in using our balance sheet in conjunction with a CMBS execution, for both SASB and conduit. 

What’s your favorite part about launching a CRE lending and CMBS business?

My favorite part is building a team and creating an environment where the team members feel they have responsibility for our growth and ownership of our success. My message to the team is that you don’t have many opportunities to build a business from the ground up, and being part of this process will be a highlight of your career. We are fortunate to have found top-tier people who are inspired by both the challenge and the opportunity. 

What might be the industry’s next black swan?

You are asking me to predict an event that is by definition unpredictable.  Most black swan events in our industry have been macro and not industry specific (work from home for office and buying online for brick-and-mortar retail being exceptions). If there is another black swan event, the cause will most likely be a macro event, whether cyber-, geopolitical- or financial system-related.

What do you wish you knew coming into 2025 that you know now?

If I was a sports gambler my answer would have been Europe’s Ryder Cup victory.  Since I am not, I will answer a slightly different question, which is the most striking change in the market during my 90-day gardening leave is the extent to which spreads tightened in all areas of CRE lending.

Lighting Round:

“The Summer I Turned Pretty” or “The Morning Show”?

Neither. “Mobland.”

Biggest moment of 2025: TSwift’s engagement or Fed rate cuts?

Fed rate cuts. They are better for business. 

Data centers: Been there done that, or Gimme more?

There is a lot more to come, so gimme more.

Where will rates be one year from now?

Our forecast for the 10-year Treasury in Q4 `26 is 4.2 percent.

Friend, unfriend, block: Office, retail, hospitality 

They are all my friends, but if I have to: Retail – friend; Hospitality – block, reluctantly; Office – unfriend, very reluctantly.

How do you shake off market stress?

Exercise!

NFL or college football?

NFL. NIL has ruined college football.

What song would be the theme tune of your life?

I am a Bruce Springsteen fan, so I will go with “Born to Run.”

Ultimate dinner party: Pick three guests (dead or alive)?

Leonardo da Vinci, Napoleon, Winston Churchill.

Thanksgiving: Are you the chef or spectator/taster?

I don’t cook — spectator/taster.

Holiday wish?

I already used the Fed rate cuts above, so I will wish for good health and good times with family.