Matt Salem

What are the biggest headwinds and tailwinds to increased transaction activity today?  

The primary headwind is the high equity basis resulting from acquisition vintages during the low-rate environment of 2021 and early 2022, when transaction activity and valuations were elevated. Many investors are seeking to extend capital structures and grow into their equity positions by holding assets through a period of reduced supply and anticipated rent growth. The key tailwind remains potential interest rate cuts — as the saying goes, don’t fight the Fed.  

Which lending and investment opportunities that didn’t exist last year are you leaning into today?   

Our primary lending themes remain consistent, with more than two-thirds of our activity concentrated in the multifamily and industrial sectors. The most notable shift from last year is our renewed participation in the office market, marked by our first new office loan since 2022 (excluding net-lease properties). The $228 million loan is secured by a newly built Class A office property in Dallas’ Uptown submarket — one of the strongest office markets in the country. We were attracted by the opportunity to lend at a low leverage point (52 percent LTV) and long lease terms, effectively financing a newly constructed, largely stabilized asset in a premier location. After applying back leverage, we achieved returns in the mid-teens. While underwriting standards remain high, liquidity is beginning to return for the best assets in top markets.  

Which transaction made you most proud this year? 

In June, we closed a $407 million loan secured by a portfolio of industrial properties in the Raleigh-Durham market. The transaction showcased the strength of our franchise and our ability to deliver for both borrowers and investors. Originally slated for the CMBS SASB market, the deal was impacted by volatility following Liberation Day, prompting our origination and CMBS teams to coordinate and identify a balance sheet execution alternative. Given the sponsor’s tight acquisition timeline, certainty of execution was critical — and we delivered. This transaction highlights our ability to move quickly at scale and underscores how our market reputation continues to generate new client relationships.     

Have the capital markets’ resiliency surprised you over the past few years?

The resilience of the capital markets over the past few years has been impressive. Even after the volatility around Liberation Day, markets found their footing quickly — spreads tightened, liquidity returned, and investors remained engaged. Despite constant geopolitical headlines and shifting rate expectations, the CRE debt markets have stayed open and functional. 

CMBS issuance is a good example of that strength: Roughly $75 billion was issued in the first half of 2025, putting the market on pace to exceed $150 billion for the year — one of the highest totals since before the Global Financial Crisis. That rebound speaks to the depth of investor demand and the adaptability of lenders and borrowers alike.

What might be the industry’s next black swan?    

The last two major disruptions in real estate were both driven by technology — first, the rise of e-commerce reshaping retail, and, more recently, the proliferation of remote work transforming office demand. We are now witnessing another wave of technological change, with massive capital investment and rapid adoption centered on artificial intelligence. As Walmart’s CEO recently said, “It’s very clear that AI is going to change literally every job,” underscoring how quickly AI is moving from concept to utility. 

Many of us are simultaneously implementing AI in our own businesses while trying to anticipate its broader implications for real estate. How this evolution ultimately affects our industry, the economy, and humanity as a whole remains anyone’s guess. 

What’s the one thing you wish you knew coming into 2025 that you know now?  

I wish I’d appreciated just how quickly sentiment would shift — both in capital markets and in the real economy. We began the year on solid footing, with talk of American exceptionalism coming out of Davos and the S&P 500 reaching an early high around 5,340 in late January. That confidence eroded quickly after Liberation Day, when the index fell roughly 17 percent to about 4,430 by mid-March, only to rebound just as fast. By late August, the S&P 500 had set a new record above 6,500, underscoring how rapidly markets can pivot from fear to optimism. If 2024 taught us patience, 2025 has reminded us to stay nimble — because markets, technology and policy can all change direction overnight. 

As we look toward 2026, I’d use that same crystal ball to forecast just how deeply AI adoption will be woven into business, investment and everyday life by this time next year.

Lighting Round:

“The Summer I Turned Pretty” or “The Morning Show”?

I haven’t seen either … pop-culture desert?

Biggest moment of 2025: TSwift’s engagement or Fed rate cuts?

My daughter’s high school graduation. 

Data centers: Been there done that, or Gimme more?

Let’s check back in seven years.

Where will rates be one year from now?

Front end — lower. Long end — higher.

Friend, unfriend, block: Office, retail, hospitality.

All friends at the right basis.

How do you shake off market stress?

What stress?

NFL or college football?

From KC. Go Chiefs.

What song would be the theme tune of your life?

”On the Road Again,” Willie Nelson.

Ultimate dinner party: Pick three guests (dead or alive)?

My father, Stephen Colbert, Bill Self.

Thanksgiving: Are you the chef or spectator/taster?

Turkey chef and wine taster.

Holiday wish?

World peace.