Hilary Provinse

What’s been the biggest highlight and biggest challenge of 2025 for your team thus far?

It’s not about any single challenge being the biggest; rather, it’s about balancing the various challenges out there. These include the wave of maturities, interest rate volatility, oversupply in certain markets, which is leading to underlying challenges in market fundamentals, regulatory concerns, and looming macroeconomic uncertainty. There’s still a smorgasbord of challenges to address.

The biggest highlight has been the rebound in lending activity, coupled with the availability of debt capital. We’ve observed a downward trend in SOFR and Treasurys, along with strong liquidity from the GSEs, debt funds, CMBS and insurance companies. These factors, with their robust product offerings, have contributed to the abundance of debt capital. 

Which lending opportunities that didn’t exist last year are you leaning into today?

The rise of bridge-to-bridge financing has been one of the more intriguing developments this year. Earlier in the year, we observed an interesting trend where potential sellers shifted from sales to leveraging bridge-to-bridge execution as rates increased, and the cost of capital rose for buyers. The use of this strategy has accelerated throughout the year, becoming a commonly executed option. Additionally, as rates decrease, we’re seeing more floating-rate executions, particularly through Freddie Mac, on the GSE side. 

What’s surprised you the most this past year?

Although fundraising is down compared to historical levels, capital
is still being raised for value-add and opportunistic strategies. This year, investments with core and core-plus profiles have attracted the most attention, receiving the strongest and deepest bids. However, we’re observing a shift as more investors find better returns in the value-add space, driven by renewed rent growth in many markets. It’s definitely a space to watch.

Describe the demand for agency lending in 2025. And what might we see in 2026? 

Despite a slow start to 2025, demand for agency lending has rebounded strongly, with GSE production surging in the second half of the year. Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have leaned into pricing, while Freddie Mac changed credit parameters for top sponsors. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to reach or approach their $73 billion caps in 2025. Meanwhile, the issuance of securitized products, particularly CRE CLOs, is increasing, becoming the preferred vehicle for multifamily financing over traditional agency options. In the second quarter of 2025, multifamily loans comprised over 80 percent of CRE CLO deals, while other asset types declined. CMBS is also experiencing a strong year, with multifamily assets growing as a portion of deals, though still under 25 percent on average. 

How will the expected privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac impact agency lending?

Berkadia cannot predict the outcome of a potential Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac IPO. Regardless of future developments, we remain committed to supporting and delivering the best possible outcomes for our clients.

Lighting Round:

“The Summer I Turned Pretty” or “The Morning Show”?

“Summer I Turned Pretty” — I have two teenage daughters.

Biggest moment of 2025: TSwift’s engagement or Fed rate cuts?

Tough one. Depends if I am wearing my day job hat or mom hat — see above reference to teenage girls. 

Data centers: Been there done that, or Gimme more?

Big opportunities and big risks — some will make huge bucks and some will blow up.

Where will rates be one year from now? Short or Long?

Long, relatively flat … short, down.

Holiday wish?

Peace, generosity and openness.

How do you shake off market stress?

Morning exercise and summers by the ocean.

NFL or college football?

Neither — tennis.

What song would be the theme tune of your life?

”Run the World,” Beyonce.

Ultimate dinner party: Pick three guests (dead or alive)?

My 102-year-old grandma — still alive, my husband, and my two daughters.

Thanksgiving: Chef or spectator/taster?

Taster — no one ever wants me to cook. Plus, I was born on Thanksgiving — best birthday ever.