Neha Santiago
Head of Real Estate Private Credit at Cerberus Capital Management
Describe the past 12 months in one word, then tell us the key lending opportunities you and your team have uncovered.
Bespoke. There was no significant volume across any particular theme in the lending market during the year, but there was consistency for us in finding situational or “moment in time” opportunities. For example, light transitional plays in niche subsets of the housing sector requiring operational expertise, atypical conversion plans beyond the high-rise office to residential pipeline, note sales with a remaining value-add plan, acquisitions in markets with recent structural changes that benefited certain asset classes, or deeply discounted covered land with opportunities for redevelopment into residential uses.
Are rate cuts the silver bullet the industry has been waiting for to solve all woes?
Interest rates will likely not return to zero so it is clear that much of the post-COVID vintage commercial real estate is over-levered. Rate cuts may be a release valve for some of the stress, but they alone are not a silver bullet for the broader valuation challenges in the industry.
How long will nonbank lenders continue to take increased market share?
We view this as a secular trend, not a cyclical one. Banks are pulling back for regulatory reasons and, ultimately, have less capacity to lend against commercial real estate. There is a distinct long-term need for alternative capital sources, so we see the gain in market share for nonbank lenders as just beginning.
Tougher market: GFC or these past four years?
The GFC was a drastic contraction but also a quick recovery driven by monetary policy. The opportunity window was short-lived with limited time to capitalize on the market shifts. In contrast, the past four years have had sustained volatility, keeping the market opaque and sidelining traditional capital sources. Monetary policy doesn’t appear to be the quick fix this time around, so the recovery will likely be prolonged, but we see opportunity in this extended time frame.
Who lent you your very first buck, and what was it for?
Gifts were never a big focus in my family growing up. Instead, my parents were adamant that I save any monetary gifts from friends or extended family for the future. Like most kids, I dreamed of going on spending sprees at Toys R Us, but that was not our reality. Many years later, when I moved to New York after college and received my first bonus, my parents showed up with those accumulated small savings from childhood and insisted that I apply them toward a down payment on my first (and rather modest) apartment. This put me on the New York City property ladder, which was invaluable! It was a rewarding lesson about saving and long-term thinking.
Are you still as enthusiastic about multifamily as you were three years ago?
We see traditional multifamily housing like the New York Jets: some Pro Bowlers, a few high-performing rookies, but overall no clear signs of things coming together for a big win. Like the team, there is still pain ahead for the sector before we will see a major comeback.
Have you taken any keys back this year?
We haven’t so far.
Tell us about a deal you’re especially proud of this past year.
This year, we financed a large, manufactured housing portfolio currently undergoing its first-generation lease-up after completing construction. The deal featured a unique structure around the home sales and pad lease-up business. This gave us an opportunity to dive deep into the specifics and structure a transaction that addressed the business plan’s risks while offering a tailored capital solution for our borrower.
Lightning Round:
If I could lend money to one person in the world, it would be…Condoleezza Rice. I think very highly of her and would love the chance to sit
across the table at a closing dinner and chat.
AI: Helpful or fad?
Helpful with enormous potential. I’ll admit to being biased since my father wrote his thesis dissertation in 1973 on the early foundations of AI, so it’s been a topic at the dinner table for as long as I can remember.
How many days are you in the office today?
Four to five days a week. I love an in-office Friday because it feels like a library and I can really be in focus mode.
Pick a movie remake: “Beetlejuice” or “Twisters”?
Neither. Our team is more of a “Love Is Blind” crew.
Modify or foreclose?
Our preference is always to modify. We aim to be flexible and work with
borrowers whenever possible, while still safeguarding our position.
Pref equity or mezz?
Mezz.
Class B office: Tear down and start over, or convert?
Depends! Some assets are a clear teardown. You know it when you see it.
Song title that encapsulates your current mindset?
“The Tortured Poets Lenders Department.”
Dream dinner date?
Lewis Hamilton and Kylian Mbappé — so I can boost my cool factor with the family!