David Perlman

Describe the past 12 months in one word, then tell us the key lending opportunities you and your team have uncovered. 

Evolving. We’ve found lending opportunities in office-to-multifamily conversions, data centers, continued strength in retail, and short-term, fixed-rate loans on stabilized deals. 

Are rate cuts the silver bullet the industry has been waiting for to solve all woes? 

It helps, but the election will lead to new policies from whomever is elected, and that may impact the inflation recovery. Also, geopolitical headwinds may diminish the impact of rate cuts. But I do not expect rates to go back to where they were over the last decade. They will likely settle to a similar level prior to the GFC.

How long will nonbank lenders continue to take increased market share? 

The interest in private credit and private credit within real estate should continue to grow globally. As a result, nonbank lenders will continue to take more market share, especially since they can offer more products and structures than traditional banks, insurance companies and agency lenders.

How does distress continue to play out in 2025, and how can lenders best protect themselves? 

Likely more loan modifications but an increasing level of foreclosures and deed in lieu of foreclosures despite the momentum of a potentially lower rate environment. Some assets, unfortunately, cannot be rescued with lower rates, and some sponsors lack the capital needed to reinvest into their assets to rightsize their capital stack. Much capital has been raised in the debt space, and that capital will add to the competition for new loan originations, helping the investment sale market. Further, some of this raised capital is for gap financing and rescue capital but at expensive terms. Those terms may come down and may save sponsors from a pending foreclosure.

Tougher market: GFC or these past four years? 

GFC. The lending market over the last four years never dried up and actually grew in interest, and now with more capital. The GFC saw all the banks on the verge of insolvency, frozen capital markets, and heavy government intervention.

Are you still as enthusiastic about multifamily as you were three years ago?  

Multifamily will always be a desirable asset class. Clearly values have decreased with increased cap rates and operating costs, primarily real estate taxes and insurance expenses. Further, oversupply in certain markets will lead to sluggish rent growth, if at all. Focusing on the right entry point, as a result, will allow us to maintain a healthy concentration of multifamily within our portfolio.

Lightning Round:

If I could lend money to one person in the world, it would be….

Jamie Dimon, to learn how he will negotiate and structure the deal. Or Donald Trump, merely to see if he would release his “audited” personal financial statements.

AI: Helpful or fad?

Game-changer.

Celebrity you’re sometimes compared to?

An off-brand Bradley Cooper.

Will interest rates be below or above 4 percent on July 1, 2025?

Above.

How many days are you in the office today?

Five days.

Modify or foreclose?

Modify with cash-in, otherwise foreclose.

Pref equity or mezz?

Mezzanine.