Manhattan’s Supply of New Condos Expected to Deepen in Q4: Report

Manhattan’s third-quarter real supply of condo development units — a mix of listed and shadow [properties not listed on the open marker] new development inventory — was 28 percent below its 10-year average, according to new data from Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing (BHSDM). However, the firm’s analysts predict there is more in the pipeline than originally anticipated for the year’s fourth quarter. 

Manhattan currently has an inventory of 3,027 new development condo units, according to BHSDM, below the 10-year average of 4,209 units. But the pipeline supply currently sits at 3,796 units, a 40 percent rise from last year’s 2,710 units, meaning the last three months of 2026 will likely pick up quickly.

“With such low supply to date this year, and not all contracts being reported, this was an exceptionally challenging quarter to analyze in a silo,” Stephen Kliegerman, president of BHSDM, said in a statement. “It’s crucial to consider the many factors beyond the actual numbers, to understand the full state and scope of the new development market.” 

During the third quarter of 2026, there were 240 new condo contracts signed in Manhattan, a decline of 27 percent year-over-year from 331 contracts and 34 percent lower than the seasonally adjusted 10-year third-quarter average of 362 contracts, according to BHSDM. 

Additionally, third-quarter contract dollar volume by last asking price was $961 million, down 13 percent from $1.1 billion last year, and down 31 percent from the 10-year average of $1.4 billion. However, BHSDM found that the contract dollar volume doesn’t account for the unreported contracts that were signed, which includes 80 Clarkson Street, where there is a projected estimated sell-out of $2.4 billion.

As of the third quarter, there were 938 contracts signed year-to-date, a 13 percent year-over-year dip and 20 percent below the 10-year benchmark of 1,171 units.

Looking at this year’s fourth-quarter pipeline, BHSDM found that the real supply for Manhattan is expected to concentrate on units priced at $2,000 per square foot, with about 12 months of additional inventory. There are 768 units expected to launch in the fourth quarter, but not all are expected to hit the market publicly. 

Some 70 percent of the pipeline for the fourth quarter is expected within the four residential areas with the least supply. Those areas, according to BHSDM, are Downtown West, the Upper East Side, East 14th Street to 34th Street, and West 14th Street to 34th Street.

“Manhattan’s real supply has hit 10-year lows, and new units on the market have also been historically low,” Robin Schneiderman, managing director at BHSDM, said in a statement. “The good news is that relief is on the horizon, as the fourth quarter should see more projects launch in Manhattan than in any other quarter in the last 10 years.” 

Meanwhile, across the East River, Brooklyn saw a 21 percent year-over-year decrease in new development contracts signed at 198 during the third quarter. The borough recorded $1.2 billion of sales volume in total contracts signed year to date, down 8 percent from the third quarter of 2025 but roughly at par with the 10-year benchmark, according to BHSDM.

Similarly to Manhattan, Brooklyn’s pipeline supply signifies a successful fourth quarter, with 2,139 units in the wings, up 5 percent from last year’s 2,037 units.

“Looking ahead, we are hopeful that new launches can keep pace with signed contracts, allowing Real Supply to stabilize rather than experience further meaningful declines,” Jason Thomas, senior vice president of research and market analytics at BHSDM, said in a statement.

Amanda Schiavo can be reached at aschiavo@commercialobserver.com.