In New York City, the Ballot Is the New Zoning Map

For most of my career, I have told clients that if you want to understand value in New York City real estate, you need to understand three things: location, zoning and the market. Study those variables carefully, and you can make informed decisions about what a property is worth and what it can become. 

Today, that framework is no longer sufficient. There is a fourth variable that has become just as important, arguably more important, and it is not found in a zoning resolution or a set of comparable sales. It is found on a ballot. 

As we approach the next election cycle for the New York City Council, one reality is becoming increasingly clear: The future of New York City development will be shaped as much by voter turnout as by zoning regulations.

That should concern everyone in our industry, because the single biggest issue we face right now is not a lack of capital, not a lack of demand, and not even a lack of development sites. It is voter apathy. Time and again, we see City Council races decided by extraordinarily small numbers of voters, with outcomes effectively determined in low-turnout primary elections where only a fraction of eligible voters participate. 

That means the individuals making decisions that will impact billions of dollars of real estate value and the future supply of housing in our city are often elected by a very small, highly motivated subset of the population. If you are not voting, you are not just opting out of a civic process — you are allowing others to determine the economic framework within which you operate.

Those decisions have real and measurable consequences. In today’s market, the value of a development site is no longer driven solely by what can be built under existing zoning. It is also driven by the probability of what will be allowed to be built. 

Yes, we do have an as-of-right zoning jurisdiction, but many developments require some type of aspect that is outside the box. That probability is shaped by local elected officials, and those officials are chosen through elections where turnout is often shockingly low. We are already seeing the impact of this dynamic across the city, where some districts demonstrate a clear willingness to engage on rezonings and support new housing, while others default to skepticism or outright opposition, creating significant uncertainty around whether projects can move forward at all.

The result is a growing divergence in value that becomes more pronounced with each election cycle. Two sites with identical zoning, located just blocks apart, can trade at materially different prices simply because they fall in different council districts with different political climates. Buyers are underwriting this reality every day — adjusting pricing, changing strategies, and, in some cases, choosing not to pursue opportunities at all based on their assessment of political feasibility. And the critical point is this: Political feasibility is determined by elections that most people are not participating in.

As we head into this next cycle, there are numerous races with open seats due to term limits, and races where incumbents are facing credible challengers. There are also districts with active development pipelines where the outcome will directly influence whether housing gets built, whether rezonings move forward, and whether capital continues to flow into New York City. 

These are not abstract policy debates. They are decisions that will determine how much housing gets delivered, where capital is deployed, and how property values evolve. Yet the level of engagement from the real estate community — and from the broader population — remains minimal.

That needs to change. If you are an owner, a developer, an investor or anyone whose livelihood is connected to the real estate market, you need to be paying attention to these elections. You need to understand who the candidates are, what their positions are, and how their views will impact the ability to create value through development. More importantly, you need to vote and you need to encourage your family members, your friends and your colleagues who live in New York City to do the same. In many of these races, a relatively small increase in turnout can change the outcome, and that change can have implications worth billions of dollars.

We spend enormous amounts of time analyzing deals, modeling scenarios and negotiating transactions to maximize value, but if we ignore the political process that, in many cases, ultimately determines what can and cannot be built, we are overlooking one of the most powerful levers we have. 

This is not about politics in the traditional sense. It is about recognizing that in New York City, land use decisions are inherently political, and those decisions are made by people elected by voters. If you are not part of that process, you are leaving one of the most important variables in your business to chance.

For decades, we have said that real estate is driven by location, location, location. Today, it is driven by location, zoning and participation, because, in this market, the most important approval you can secure is not just at City Hall — it is at the ballot box.

Robert Knakal is founder, chairman and CEO of BK Real Estate Advisors.