Trump’s Golden Visa Could Boost Commercial Real Estate Investment

It’s not surprising that the often transactional nature of President Donald Trump’s policy decisions might carry over to commercial real estate. But what investors and developers want to know is whether his proposal for a so-called golden visa — in effect, selling access to a U.S. green card for $5 million to attract high-net-worth investors — will end up benefiting the real estate industry or hampering some of its access to foreign capital.

“The program’s announcement has already triggered alarm bells in the real estate sector, an industry Trump knows very well,” said Murat Coskun, managing partner at Get Golden Visa, a consultancy for those hunting for residencies in a range of nations. “The program isn’t focused on real estate investment, but talks have started about a possible rise in demand. Wealthy individuals who can invest $5 million often buy luxury homes in the U.S.”

During his March 4 address to Congress, President Trump declared his golden visa program would “allow the most successful job-creating people from all over the world to buy a path to U.S. citizenship.” 

What both intrigues and worries the commercial real estate world is that this gold card concept doesn’t require these job creators to fund real estate development necessarily. Plus, it could crowd other avenues for drawing foreign real estate investment. 

“The primary concern for folks on the real estate side is that it’s all really unclear,” said Sam Chandan, founding director and professor at New York University’s Chao-Hon Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance. “There is no data to help us quantify how much capital this will raise. But, if it comes at the cost of the EB-5 program, which for some projects has been a meaningful source of capital, that’s problematic.”

The current vehicle for foreign investment in U.S. real estate, the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, requires at least an $800,000 investment in a U.S. business or property in exchange for a green card. EB-5 attracts “outstanding demand,” said Basil Mohr-Elzeki, managing partner and head of the Americas for Henley & Partners, a foreign investment advisory. It was instrumental in financing marquee projects such as Hudson Yards, and has a significant backlog of interest from investors in China and India. 

But even the broad outline of the golden visa program has intrigued investors, despite some expectation that it won’t necessarily have a real estate component. Currently, if you’re a green card holder, you are taxed on worldwide income, regardless of where you stay. Golden visa holders, on the other hand, would not be subject to taxes on their overseas income, according to the administration. Getting expedited access to the U.S. market without that additional tax burden could be a potent selling point.

“We’re getting two types of calls,” said Mohr-Elzeki. “One is, ‘I want to get in on the EB-5 at that threshold before the prices go up.’ And the other is, ‘Tell me about this gold card. What are the tax implications? What are the residency requirements? How fast can I get citizenship?’ We’re seeing quite a bit of interest.”

Other analysts believe the prognosis for the golden visa remains much less understandable. Coskun pointed out that in Europe, deals using existing golden visa-like programs made up less than 1 percent of all property transactions. Chandan argues that it’s not certain how many investors will actually be able to take advantage of the program and avail themselves of the opportunity. Without any concrete details about how income from the golden visa will be allocated — and if that allocation will benefit real estate and its access to capital — it’s uncertain to him how this will help or hamper the industry.

“EB-5 is structured in a way you know that much of the benefit does flow to real estate,” Chandan said. “But, with this program, it’s not clear that real estate would be a beneficiary.”

Replacing EB-5 with the golden visa would, in effect, “wipe out and destroy” the regional investment industry that has formed around the program since it was initiated 35 years ago, said G. Lamont Blackstone, a commercial real estate consultant and urban redevelopment specialist. EB-5 has been instrumental in raising capital for a variety of real estate projects, Blackstone said.

However, some argue that it really is as simple as getting high-net-worth investors more comfortable with investing in the U.S. Alex Foshay, Newmark’s executive vice chairman and head of international capital markets, believes this idea will be a boon to U.S. commercial real estate, as private family offices and private investors — such as Pontegadea Investments, the family office of Zara founder Amancio Ortega; Pontiac Land from Singapore; or the Reuben brothers from London — already provide a significant and rising share of overseas investment into U.S. real estate.

“Looking at the golden visa program, I see it as only a benefit,” said Foshay. “I see it as putting the U.S. on an equal footing to many of the other markets around the world that have systems that allow these wealthy individuals to have permanent residency in their countries.”

Foshay ultimately believes the program will provide a lot more liquidity at the trophy end of the market, increasing the demand and asset prices for high-end offices in gateway cities.  

“Typically, this type of offshore capital will pay top dollar for newly built or newly renovated and stable office product, and allow the more nimble U.S. equity to take on the value-add initiatives immediately below that,” he said. “It will create more depth and a better functioning market.” 

It also would help steer more of a growing pool of international investment from high-net-worth individuals and families to the U.S. from Europe, China and, increasingly, Vietnam, South Korea and Brazil. This very rich segment of investment migration has become more populous, said Mohr-Elzeki, with wealthy families looking to diversify. If the U.S. became a more accessible market, and investment didn’t adversely impact taxation, it would make the gold card quite attractive. 

“I think what Trump wants to do is to remarket this, to kind of remind the millionaires that, ‘Hey, you know we exist, please look at us,’” Mohr-Elzeki said. “If they make it attractive in terms of residency requirements, or how long you have to stay in the country and the tax aspect — if they make that attractive, I think that they can have a decent flow into the program.”

The concept exists in other countries, offering a pathway to citizenship in exchange for investment, either real estate-focused, donation-based or in specific companies. New Zealand charges 10 million New Zealand dollars ($5.7 million U.S.) to get residency, while Malta has an 18-month pathway to citizenship with a nonrefundable 1 million euros donation ($1.09 million U.S.). In that respect, said Mohr-Elzeki, $5 million for the U.S. “doesn’t seem crazy.” 

Investors still need to see — in addition to concrete details about the program’s procedures —  whether the gold card will replace or complement the existing EB-5 program. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said the program will replace EB-5. 

Typically, the U.S. government, specifically the Commerce Department, would be consulting with different firms and their government advisory teams to help shape the rules and regulations around a program like this, but it’s been quite silent, said Mohr-Elzeki. For instance, EB-5 requires investors to reveal the source of their funds. Would expedited gold card access require the same amount of scrutiny?

Replacing the EB-5 program outright would require an act of Congress, said NYU’s Chandan, so it might be easier for the Trump administration to simply wait until 2027, when the program is set to expire or be renewed. There’s also significant questions about the application process and legal framework of the program, even the evaluation criteria for determining who qualifies, said Coskun of Get Golden Visa.

If the gold card replaces EB-5, raising the threshold for investment from $800,000 to $5 million would cut out a significant number of smaller investors. But Henley & Partners’ internal statistics found that there are 2 million millionaires in the world with $5 million in liquid, investable assets, and the U.S. ranked second in attracting millionaires via migration in 2024, behind only the United Arab Emirates. 

Mohr-Elzeki believes some millionaires, but not all, would be interested in the program, as the U.S. remains quite an attractive place for the ultrawealthy. Families would want their kids to grow up here. U.S. firms might even use the program as a way to provide citizenship to key employees. He believes that, while there would be fewer applicants, the golden visa would be beneficial to the United States in terms of revenue.

While details remain scarce and no deadlines have been set for implementation, the administration seems to be vigorously pursuing the idea, with both the president and Lutnick commenting on the concept. 

“They’re putting it up as an idea to see what the level of reaction is,” said Foshay. “From our perspective, in our industry, I believe this would be an enormous positive.”