There’s an old joke that says: “God created economists to make weathermen look good.” Generally speaking, economists do not pay much attention to the weather because it does not affect economic activity except over very short periods of time. A bad storm might affect a region for a few days or weeks, but after it’s Read More
By Ken McCarthy 2/20 7:00am
The year 2013 was one for the record books in New York City.
- The number of tourists visiting New York City reached a record 54.3 million people.
- 1 World Trade Center was confirmed as the tallest building in the Western Hemisphere.
- The number of people working in the city reached Read More
By Ken McCarthy 1/30 7:00am
When was the last time interest rates were a topic of discussion regarding the U.S. economy? It was probably in 2007 or 2008 when the financial crisis was just emerging. But the recent rise in rates shouldn’t be a cause for undue concern. In fact, it signals that the economy is in much better shape. Read More
By Ken McCarthy 1/16 6:00am
It’s time for a little crystal ball-gazing, keeping in mind one of my former boss’s favorite sayings: “He who lives by the crystal ball gets to eat shattered glass.”
The Manhattan office market closed 2013 with some interesting anomalies that will have an important impact on 2014:
- While total employment growth was very strong, Read More
By Ken McCarthy 11/21/13 6:00am
Since the jobs recovery began in late 2009, New York City has been one of the best performers in the nation.
As of August, total employment has increased by more than 290,000 jobs (note the partial government shutdown delayed the release of September employment for the city—it will now come out in late November, along Read More
By Ken McCarthy 10/24/13 6:00am
The third quarter of 2013 is in the books, and it looks by most measures to have been a pretty average quarter. Leasing volumes were average, asking rents were, for the most part, flat, and vacancy rates drifted higher.
The biggest surprise in the statistics was in the Downtown market. While vacancy rose from second Read More
By Ken McCarthy 10/10/13 6:00am
For much of my career of studying and forecasting activity in the U.S. economy and the commercial real estate industry, I have held fast to a maxim that what happens in the economy does so in spite of what goes on in Washington, D.C.
There is no denying that Federal Reserve policy, taxes and spending, Read More
By Ken McCarthy 9/26/13 6:00am
The Manhattan office market has been sluggish over the past several months.
While leasing volumes have been above average, vacancy rates have increased in all three of the major markets that make up Manhattan. In August, the Midtown vacancy rate was 11.2 percent up from 9.4 percent at year-end 2012, the Midtown South vacancy rate Read More
By Ken McCarthy 9/12 6:00am
One of the more notable aspects of the current economic recovery has been the strength of tourism and related industries.
In 2012, New York played host to a record 52 million tourists—11 million from abroad and 41 million from the U.S.—so we had approximately 1 million people visiting the city every week.
In 2002, New Read More
By Ken McCarthy 8/29/13 7:00am
We live in the biggest city in North America and one of the largest metropolises in the world. Sometimes we get so caught up in the day-to-day activities of life that we fail to realize just how special New York City really is. So I thought this week I would provide some perspective.
By Ken McCarthy 8/01/13 6:00am
Before the end of the third quarter of 2013, 4 World Trade Center will be ready for tenants to take possession.
Three to four months after that happens, 1 World Trade Center will be ready. In just the past few weeks, Silverstein Properties reached an agreement with GroupM, a subsidiary of British advertising giant WPP, Read More
By Ken McCarthy 7/18/13 7:00am
No matter how you look at it, the Midtown South market is hot. The vacancy rate in Midtown South is currently 7.2 percent, making it by far the tightest major market in the nation. The only market close to Midtown South in vacancy is San Francisco, where the vacancy rate is 8.6 percent.
The technology Read More
By Ken McCarthy 7/04/13 6:00am
Manhattan is in the midst of a construction mini-boom.
Between May 2013 and May 2014 five new office towers will be completed, adding more than 6.5 million square feet of office space to the market. That’s the largest volume of new office space to be completed over a 12-month period since 1989.Building Office Square Read More
By Ken McCarthy 6/20/13 7:00am
The Manhattan office market in 2013 has been a mixed bag of healthy leasing volumes, rising vacancy rates and stable-to-rising rents.
In Midtown, the level of activity has picked up noticeably thus far this year. For the first five months of the year, Cushman & Wakefield reports that 6.6 million square feet of new leases Read More
By Ken McCarthy 6/06/13 7:00am
For the past year or more, there has been widespread concern about the Downtown office market. With the impending completion of the two World Trade Center towers (1 World Trade Center will be completed at the end of 2013 and 4 World Trade Center in the third quarter of 2013) and the consolidation of tenants Read More