I started working in the commercial real estate industry in the summer of 2006 and throughout my nearly eight years in this business I have always been told that there is a seasonal pattern to activity in the Manhattan office market. The beginning of the year into the spring is busy, activity falls off in Read More
By Ken McCarthy 7/16 5:28pm
It’s in vogue these days to point to the strength of the Manhattan office market below 34th street and discount the importance of the Midtown Manhattan office market. Certainly, there has been strong growth in demand leading to healthy rent increases in Midtown South and the markets below 34th Street have seen strong leasing activity Read More
By Ken McCarthy 5/29 7:30am
You can feel it when you walk around Manhattan these days. The city seems more vibrant, more active than ever before. In fact, this is more than a feeling; it’s the verified truth.
Earlier this year the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the population of New York City reached a record high in 2013 of Read More
By Ken McCarthy 5/04 7:00am
Although the U.S. economy overall, as measured by payroll employment, has grown at a moderate pace since the job recovery began at the beginning of 2010, some cities have boomed while others have lagged. In general, cities that have a large proportion of their employment base in either technology or energy are growing rapidly, while Read More
By Ken McCarthy 4/18 7:00am
The U.S. economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2014 with real gross domestic product (GDP) currently estimated to have increased at an annual rate of approximately 1.5%, down from 2.6% in the final quarter of 2013. Most of the slowdown was caused by the severe winter of 2013-14 which caused drops in consumer Read More
By Ken McCarthy 3/27 1:28pm
New York City office-using employment jumped in January. In addition, the latest revisions to the employment statistics for 2013 show an office sector that was stronger than initially reported. The revisions indicate the creative industries that have led the office recovery continued to do so in 2013.
Office-using employment increased by more than 4,000 jobs Read More
By Ken McCarthy 3/13 6:00am
The Manhattan office market has seen a large volume of leasing competed this year. In February alone, Cushman & Wakefield research reported total new leasing in Manhattan of 4.02 million square feet (msf), the largest monthly new leasing volume since May 2011 and only the second time since we started reporting monthly statistics that new Read More
By Ken McCarthy 2/27 7:00am
There’s an old joke that says: “God created economists to make weathermen look good.” Generally speaking, economists do not pay much attention to the weather because it does not affect economic activity except over very short periods of time. A bad storm might affect a region for a few days or weeks, but after it’s Read More
By Ken McCarthy 2/20 7:00am
The year 2013 was one for the record books in New York City.
- The number of tourists visiting New York City reached a record 54.3 million people.
- 1 World Trade Center was confirmed as the tallest building in the Western Hemisphere.
- The number of people working in the city reached Read More
By Ken McCarthy 1/30 7:00am
When was the last time interest rates were a topic of discussion regarding the U.S. economy? It was probably in 2007 or 2008 when the financial crisis was just emerging. But the recent rise in rates shouldn’t be a cause for undue concern. In fact, it signals that the economy is in much better shape. Read More
By Ken McCarthy 1/16 6:00am
It’s time for a little crystal ball-gazing, keeping in mind one of my former boss’s favorite sayings: “He who lives by the crystal ball gets to eat shattered glass.”
The Manhattan office market closed 2013 with some interesting anomalies that will have an important impact on 2014:
- While total employment growth was very strong, Read More
By Ken McCarthy 11/21/13 6:00am
Since the jobs recovery began in late 2009, New York City has been one of the best performers in the nation.
As of August, total employment has increased by more than 290,000 jobs (note the partial government shutdown delayed the release of September employment for the city—it will now come out in late November, along Read More
By Ken McCarthy 10/24/13 6:00am
The third quarter of 2013 is in the books, and it looks by most measures to have been a pretty average quarter. Leasing volumes were average, asking rents were, for the most part, flat, and vacancy rates drifted higher.
The biggest surprise in the statistics was in the Downtown market. While vacancy rose from second Read More
By Ken McCarthy 10/10/13 6:00am
For much of my career of studying and forecasting activity in the U.S. economy and the commercial real estate industry, I have held fast to a maxim that what happens in the economy does so in spite of what goes on in Washington, D.C.
There is no denying that Federal Reserve policy, taxes and spending, Read More
By Ken McCarthy 9/26/13 6:00am
The Manhattan office market has been sluggish over the past several months.
While leasing volumes have been above average, vacancy rates have increased in all three of the major markets that make up Manhattan. In August, the Midtown vacancy rate was 11.2 percent up from 9.4 percent at year-end 2012, the Midtown South vacancy rate Read More