The Election and its Effect on Commercial Real Estate Pricing

2001 was an annus horribilis for New York City, with 9/11 and a recession. During this first Bush term, the vacancy rate climbed to 13 percent and the asking rent fell to $36.59 (in early to mid-2003) before improving slightly by the next election.

2004 – Bush: 11.6%/$39.11

During the second Bush term, the vacancy rate improved to 6.7 percent and asking rents popped to $67.06 (from the second half of 2007 into the first half of 2008) in an overheated market propelled by financial services. However, these heady days would not last, as a severe recession would cause the vacancy rate to head back to double-digits and rents to fall as the country headed into the election.